Virus takes its Toll

Virus Takes Its Toll

Good Morning Traders,

As of this writing 5:45 AM EST, heres what we see:

US Dollar: Sept USD is Down at 97.270.

Energies: Aug'20 Crude is Down at 38.22.

Financials: The Sept'20 30 year bond is Down 5 ticks and trading at 178.30.

Indices: The Sept S&P 500 emini ES contract is 32 ticks Lower and trading at 3015.00.

Gold: The Aug'20 Gold contract is trading Up at 1782.00. Gold is 17 ticks Higher than its close.

Initial Conclusion

This is not a correlated market. The dollar is Down- and Crude is Down- which is not normal and the 30 year Bond is trading Lower. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Lower which is correlated. Gold is trading Higher which is correlated with the US dollar trading Down. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.

At this time all of Asia is trading mainly Lower. Conversely all of Europe is trading Higher.

Possible Challenges To Traders Today:

  • Pending Home Sales is out at 10 AM EST. This is Major.
  • Lack of Major Economic News.

Treasuries

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 30 year bond (ZB) and The S&P futures contract. The S&P contract is the Standard and Poor's and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments. Remember it's liken to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

On Friday the ZB made it's move at around 7:45 AM EST. The ZB hit a Low at around that time and the S&P moved Lower. If you look at the charts below ZB gave a signal at around 7:45 AM EST and the S&P moved Lower at around the same time. Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. ZB hit a Low at around 7:45 AM EST and the S&P was moving Lower shortly thereafter. These charts represent the newest version of MultiCharts and I've changed the timeframe to a 15 minute chart to display better. This represented a long opportunity on the 30 year bond, as a trader you could have netted about 20 plus ticks per contract on this trade. Each tick is worth $31.25. Please note: the front month for the ZB is now Sept '20. The S&P contract has been changed to Sept '20. I've changed the format to Renko bars such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts Courtesy of MultiCharts built on an AMP platform Click on an image to enlarge it.

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ZB - Sept 2020 - 6/26/20
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S&P - Sept 2020 - 6/26/20

Bias

On Friday we gave the markets a Neutral bias as we didn't see much in the way of correlation Friday morning hence the Neutral bias. The Dow dropped 730 points and the other indices lost ground as well. Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market and our bias is to the Upside.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

On Friday it was announced that both Florida and Texas would be shutting down their bars and drinking establishments as both states have witnessed a surge in coronavirus cases. This was almost immediately after both states had reopened their economies. This undoubtedly has an effect on financial markets as the Dow alone dropped 730 points on Friday. So why is this happening? Those states like many others aren't following CDC guidelines and opened prematurely. President Trump doesn't seem to be too mindful of this as he has already stated "vaccine or no vaccine, we won't shut down the economy as we did earlier." He is banking his re-election hopes on a strong economy but what he doesn't seem to understand is that people will spend, they will go to work and not stay if they feel safe. Right now no one feels safe.

On Thursday April 5 (2018) we had the honor and privilege to be interviewed by David Lincoln on his You Tube channel. David is a floor trader for the options markets. If you listen to this interview, you will enjoy it. To view the interview go to:

ttps://youtu.be/U7gh9oanjIE

Just so you understand, Market Correlation is Market Direction. It attempts to determine the market direction for that day and it does so by using a unique set of tools. In fact TradersLog published an article on this subject that can be viewed at: http://www.traderslog.com/market-correlation-is-market-direction/

As readers are probably aware I don't trade equities. While we're on this discussion, let's define what is meant by a good earnings report. A company must exceed their prior quarter's earnings per share and must provide excellent forward guidance. Any falloff between earning per share or forward guidance will not bode well for the company's shares. This is one of the reasons I don't trade equities but prefer futures. There is no earnings reports with futures and we don't have to be concerned about lawsuits, scandals, malfeasance, etc. Anytime the market isn't correlated it's giving you a clue that something isn't right and you should proceed with caution. Today our bias is to the Upside. Could this change? Of course. In a volatile market anything can happen. We'll have to monitor and see.

As I write this the crude markets are Lower and the S&P is Higher. This is normal. Crude and the markets are now reverse correlated such that when the markets are rising, crude drops and vice-versa. On Friday August crude dropped to a low of 37.80. Crude still hasn't returned to a sense of normalcy therefore we can't quote support and resistance numbers. Remember that crude is the only commodity that is reflected immediately at the gas pump. Please note that the front month for crude is now August. Both Russia and Saudi Arabia have agreed to keep production cuts in place for the next 6 - 9 months. This could artificially increase the price of crude at the pump by keeping supply low. However given the coronavirus situation prices are currently Lower because demand is Lower. Fewer people working, fewer people using their cars to get to work as many are working from home, etc. Please be advised that the new contract month for crude is now August.

If trading crude today consider doing so after 10 AM EST when the markets give us better direction.

Crude Oil Is Trading Lower

Crude oil is trading Lower and the S&P is Higher. This is normal. Crude typically makes 3 major moves (long or short) during the course of any trading day: around 9 AM EST, 11 AM EST and 2 PM EST when the crude market closes. If crude makes major moves around those time frames, then this would suggest normal trending, if not it would suggest that something is not quite right. As always watch and monitor your order flow as anything can happen in this market. This is why monitoring order flow in today's market is crucial. We as traders are faced with numerous challenges that we didn't have a few short years ago. High Frequency Trading is one of them. I'm not an advocate of scalping however in a market as volatile as this scalping is an alternative to trend trading. Remember that without knowledge of order flow we as traders are risking our hard earned capital and the Smart Money will have no issue taking it from us. Regardless of whatever platform you use for trading purposes you need to make sure it's monitoring order flow. To fully capitalize on this newsletter it is important that the reader understand how the various markets correlate. More on this in subsequent editions.

Nick Mastrandrea is the author of Market Tea Leaves. Market Tea Leaves is a daily newsletter that is dedicated to your trading success. We teach and discuss market correlation. Market Tea Leaves is published daily, pre-market in the United States and can be viewed at www.markettealeaves.com. Interested in Market Correlation? Want to learn more? Signup and receive Market Tea Leaves each day prior to market open. As a subscriber, youll also receive our daily Market Bias video that is only available to subscribers.